悔しくて悔しくて

まあマイナスにならなかっただけでも良しとしなければ。

しかしこの1ヶ月の努力はなんだったのだろうか？

1日で吹っ飛んだ。悲しい。

脱力感、何もする気になれない。

いつもは500円の損もイライラするのに、この場では一瞬で20000-30000の損失だ。

中間選挙の結果も見えてきたし、FOMCもそんなに緩和しないと分かると早い。11/2を待たずに週末の金曜日に仕掛けてきた。

10/27のCSの不穏な動きを軽く見ていた。

証券会社名 P9000 9250 9500 9750 10000 　 C9000 9250 9500 9750

Ｃスイス 　　　　202 422 　 　 　 　 　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 514 -300 　　

買戻カイモドし 下シタ方向ホウコウ　 利益リエキ確定


の動きだった。今までSSを組んでいてそれを買い戻していた。

10/28　23：30

9500　Call　75円、9500　Put　180円で指値　（19：00）。引けでC950が決済されてしまった。+145000の儲けは出たが、この時点でP950は85000の儲けがあった。

CS,NEが最近売っている。NE　－1700枚

OPでもP925,P900の買いが目立つ。　Callは9500をすでに売っている。こちら時間真夜中の12時。マットのセミナーでも聞いて寝ようか？

目が覚めたのが、こちらの5：00AMで日本の0：00ですでに市場は閉まっている。なにもできない。

PutとCall両方を引けもしくは始値で成行決済が原則だ。下げているならばPutの指値を入れてもCallの指値は入れるな。

9/29　8：30

P950　230円　

CMEは9350円で戻ってきてこれなら昨日の9500　Putの終値230円で必ず決済できると思っていた。

間違えてCallをすでに決済してしまったので成行でPut決済しなければならない。

8：50

鉱工業生産の落ち込みは深刻

（　）は事前予想

鉱工業生産-9月（速報値）：-1.9％ （-0.6％）

P950が250円に跳ね上がる。

板は240,250と非常に薄い。5枚程度しかない。

成行が鉄則なのに230円の指値に切り替える。

ひまわりライブ

　きょうは2Ｑ決算発表の1次ピークで主力企業の決算発表が相次ぐため、業績面での選別物色がさらに鮮明となりそうだ。前引け後には海運大手、後場のザラ場中には大手商社などが予定している。いずれも、足元の業績は好調で通期予想は上方修正するとみられるが、事前観測で織り込み済みの可能性もあるだけに、決算発表後のマーケットの反応が注目されよう。
　日経平均の予想レンジは9300～9400円。20日につけた直近安値9316円を下回ると、先物主導で下げが加速する可能性があり警戒したい。

9：00

230円では寄り付かず。

9：02

240円を付けたので230円で買い戻せると思い込んでいた。将棋でもやっていよう。

9：10

減額修正のシャープやＪＴ、計画未達のアドバンテストなどが売られており、選別物色が強まっている。

NHK　海外放送

9：20

びっくり。P950は280円に跳ね上がっている。　先物は9300を割り込み9280円に

慌てふためいて270円に訂正。しかし窓が開いている。　290-275の窓。板も少ない。Out of the Moneyだと板も薄い。だれも売買しない。

9：46

売値の315円で買い戻す。約85000円の儲け損ない。昨日決済していれば。

反省

中間選挙11/2、　FOMC　11/3までは動きようがないと決め付けていた。事実ここ2週間100円も動かなかった。

11/1に決済しようと思っていた。しかし、10/26,27,28と9400円を割り込むことがあった。CSもNEも売り出した。

円安を11/2以降想定しているので戻るだろうと高をくくっていた。

ここ4週間の我慢と寝不足はなんだったのだろうか？

残念

実はP925とC975のShort　Strangleも組んでいた。8：30には成行決済を注文。すくなくとも2週間の我慢で90000円の利益は見込めた。しかし8：58に取り消し注文を出してしまった。現在の見込み利益は30000円に激減。これも残念。

A Deflated City

While the effects are felt across Japan’s economy, they are more apparent in regions like Osaka, the third-largest city, than in relatively prosperous Tokyo. In this proudly commercial city, merchants have gone to extremes to coax shell-shocked shoppers into spending again. But this often takes the shape of price wars that end up only feeding Japan’s deflationary spiral.

There are vending machines that sell canned drinks for 10 yen, or 12 cents; restaurants with 50-yen beer; apartments with the first month’s rent of just 100 yen, about $1.22. Even marriage ceremonies are on sale, with discount wedding halls offering weddings for $600 — less than a tenth of what ceremonies typically cost here just a decade ago.

On Senbayashi, an Osaka shopping street, merchants recently held a 100-yen day, offering much of their merchandise for that price. Even then, they said, the results were disappointing.

“It’s like Japanese have even lost the desire to look good,” said Akiko Oka, 63, who works part time in a small apparel shop, a job she has held since her own clothing store went bankrupt in 2002.

This loss of vigor is sometimes felt in unusual places. Kitashinchi is Osaka’s premier entertainment district, a three-centuries-old playground where the night is filled with neon signs and hostesses in tight dresses, where just taking a seat at a top club can cost $500.

But in the past 15 years, the number of fashionable clubs and lounges has shrunk to 480 from 1,200, replaced by discount bars and chain restaurants. Bartenders say the clientele these days is too cost-conscious to show the studied disregard for money that was long considered the height of refinement.

“A special culture might be vanishing,” said Takao Oda, who mixes perfectly crafted cocktails behind the glittering gold countertop at his Bar Oda.

After years of complacency, Japan appears to be waking up to its problems, as seen last year when disgruntled voters ended the virtual postwar monopoly on power of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, for many Japanese, it may be too late. Japan has already created an entire generation of young people who say they have given up on believing that they can ever enjoy the job stability or rising living standards that were once considered a birthright here.

Yukari Higaki, 24, said the only economic conditions she had ever known were ones in which prices and salaries seemed to be in permanent decline. She saves as much money as she can by buying her clothes at discount stores, making her own lunches and forgoing travel abroad. She said that while her generation still lived comfortably, she and her peers were always in a defensive crouch, ready for the worst.

“We are the survival generation,” said Ms. Higaki, who works part time at a furniture store.

Hisakazu Matsuda, president of Japan Consumer Marketing Research Institute, who has written several books on Japanese consumers, has a different name for Japanese in their 20s; he calls them the consumption-haters. He estimates that by the time this generation hits their 60s, their habits of frugality will have cost the Japanese economy $420 billion in lost consumption.

“There is no other generation like this in the world,” Mr. Matsuda said. “These guys think it’s stupid to spend.”

Deflation has also affected businesspeople by forcing them to invent new ways to survive in an economy where prices and profits only go down, not up.

Yoshinori Kaiami was a real estate agent in Osaka, where, like the rest of Japan, land prices have been falling for most of the past 19 years. Mr. Kaiami said business was tough. There were few buyers in a market that was virtually guaranteed to produce losses, and few sellers, because most homeowners were saddled with loans that were worth more than their homes.

Some years ago, he came up with an idea to break the gridlock. He created a company that guides homeowners through an elaborate legal subterfuge in which they erase the original loan by declaring personal bankruptcy, but continue to live in their home by “selling” it to a relative, who takes out a smaller loan to pay its greatly reduced price.

“If we only had inflation again, this sort of business would not be necessary,” said Mr. Kaiami, referring to the rising prices that are the opposite of deflation. “I feel like I’ve been waiting for 20 years for inflation to come back.”

One of his customers was Masato, the small-business owner, who sold his four-bedroom condo to a relative for about $185,000, 15 years after buying it for a bit more than $500,000. He said he was still deliberating about whether to expunge the $110,000 he still owed his bank by declaring personal bankruptcy.

Economists said one reason deflation became self-perpetuating was that it pushed companies and people like Masato to survive by cutting costs and selling what they already owned, instead of buying new goods or investing.

“Deflation destroys the risk-taking that capitalist economies need in order to grow,” said Shumpei Takemori, an economist at Keio University in Tokyo. “Creative destruction is replaced with what is just destructive destruction.”

Steve Lohr contributed reporting from New York.